Five and a half years of Russia’s war against Ukraine and other democracies show clearly that the international community needs to change its strategy. Our actions must become offensive and have as a clear final goal the disintegration of the Russian Federation. It is the only effective long-term solution that would benefit the overwhelming majority of countries.
Let me enumerate just a few arguments in favor of this proposal:
- For the first time since world war two the borders of a sovereign state were annexed by force under the disguise of a pseudo-referendum and the pretext of "protection of the rights of national minorities" and "historical justice". According to the same logic, any future annexations by any other aggressor could be justified. No country in the world can now feel secure unless the original culprit is punished.
- Russia habitually violates bilateral agreements, blatantly ignores international law and international humanitarian law, refuses to abide by verdicts of the International Court of Justice and other UN courts, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, European Court of Human Rights, Stockholm Arbitration, abuses its veto right at the UN Security Council to cover up its crimes. Thus, Moscow deliberately causes steady erosion of the postwar system of international relations, of the law and trust between nations.
- Attack by Russia on nuclear-free Ukraine severely undermined non-proliferation regimes encouraging other countries not to give up or to acquire weapons of mass destruction. The cases of North Korea or Iran may be just the first to be followed by others.
- Moscow creates hotspots of instability and violence all around the globe, in particular along its own periphery, in Syria and Libya, Venezuela, on the Balkans, on the Korean peninsula, in African regions.
- Kremlin is directly commanding and supplying its armed forces and mercenaries in Donbas. There are proofs of its involvement in the creation and functioning of ISIS, the arming of Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah. Downing of MH17, poisoning of Litvinenko and Skripal and other GRU killings in Europe reveal also the arrogant state terrorism by the Russian Federation.
- The Russian administration on Ukraine’s occupied territories commits murders, tortures, mass deportations of the Ukrainian and Tatar populations. In Syria, Russia bombs civilians driving up waves of migration into Europe.
- Russian security services have been caught shipping narcotics from Latin America and Asia into USA and EU.
- Moscow’s hybrid methods are meant to destroy the European Union and NATO, undermine fundamental democratic values, spread political corruption and support organized crime.
- Moscow interferes regularly into the process of elections and referenda, in particular in Ukraine, USA, UK, the Netherlands, South Africa, Madagascar, Indonesia, Northern Macedonia, Moldova spreading propaganda, disinformation and sowing discord and conflicts in societies.
- RF discredited the values of honest sport by state-sponsoring of the doping.
- Russia has no respect for private property. Its usual form of "cooperation" with foreign companies is to attract their funds and technologies and, after the new investment is fully operational, to raid it and turn it into the hands of Kremlin tycoons.
- Technological backwardness of Russia causes frequent technogenic disasters on its territory, including nuclear, while indifference of its leaders to human lives leads to many casualties. The world cannot afford waiting passively until the next such disaster happens, its consequences spilling across borders.
Any attempts to pacify Russia and to do business as usual leads only to its increased arrogance, as was the case with the return of the Russian delegation to PACE. Any attempts to seek a civilized modus vivendi with Russians are a priori doomed to fail, because such a solution runs counter to the basic expansionistic mindset of the Kremlin regime, regardless of the surname of its current president and even irrespective of ideology or form of governance. The history of Moscow Czars, Russian empire, USSR and modern Russian Federation reflects almost identical methods of both internal politics and foreign policy behavior. The Russian Federation within its current borders and with its current resources is not able to ever become a normal civilized nation. On the other hand, a Russia shrunk to the size of its current European territory, deprived of WMDs and of its permanent seat in the UN Security Council, has a big chance to become a responsible regional player, maybe even become a NATO or EU member, in peace with all its neighbors.
After the reformatting of the Russian territory and emergence of newly independent states, the above problems will most likely either disappear or become much less acute. A similar waning of the destructive role of Russia was observed in the 1990s, when its KGB system was still in disarray following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
After the disintegration of RF, its natural resources and infrastructure will not disappear, but fall into ownership of newly independent states whose political culture can be shaped under the influence of international community thus enabling new civilized contracts and partnerships.
Additional argument in favor of RF disintegration is the opportunity for occupied neighbors to finally get back their annexed territories, e.g. for Finland, Baltic states, Poland, China, Japan, Georgia and Ukraine.
It is important to note that the means to bring about RF disintegration do not need to include military actions. The author of this article by no means calls for any extremist on any other illegal activity contrary to international law. It will be sufficient simply to isolate Russia by introducing real economic sanctions that would include: personal sanctions against its top leaders with assets freeze and travel ban; harsh restrictions for energy, banking and military industrial sectors; ban on sale of any high technologies, dramatic lowering of oil prices. That is all. Just shut them out and let them rot, under tight international control. The Russians will do it to themselves.
The most difficult task will be obviously to secure the Russian nuclear stockpile and other weapons of mass destructions. However, the experience of disarmament after the demise of the USSR testifies that this task is not impossible. It would be prudent to maintain constant lines of communication with the Russian military to prevent any unintentional fallacies.
The new foreign policy, economic and political-military strategy to contain, deter and force Russia to peace by means of its controlled disintegration needs to receive tacit consensus and support of key global players – USA, EU, China, and to be reflected by default in their future everyday policies. The time has come for the last evil empire to fall down. As a result, the world will sigh in deep relief, many of its acute problems miraculously vanishing.
Oleksandr Aleksandrovych, for Censor.NET